Taylor County Rents

April 2026 brought $1.89/sf rents (see Figure 1) for the Abilene rental market. ¹ From a renter's perspective, rents have become progressively worse starting with $1.48/sf January 2026, a 13-cent increase in February 2026 to $1.61/sf, an 11-cent increase to $1.72/sf in March 2026, and now a 17-cent increase to $1.89/sf in April 2026 - a 41-cent or 27.7% increase since January 2026. One year ago, units leased for $1.20/sf - that's a 57.5% gain.

figure 1: abilene rent per sqft

On May 1, 2026, 33, 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-family homes were available for lease through MLS - up 1 unit of the same type available at the outset of April 2026. These homes advertise an average rent-per-sf of $1.95/sf - slightly lower per-square-foot pricing compared to April 2026.

If you broaden the search to all residential rentals - apartments, condos, & homes of every bedroom configuration - 103 rentals were available at $1.90 per sf at the outset of May 2026. Compare this to April 2026; average rent/sf for all advertised, unrented units was $2.06 - renters get a breather with a 16-cent downtick.

Look at the rent data in Figure 1 between 2020 to the middle of 2022¹. Although the data has a few months of equivocation, it shows a steady climb in rents. This period was a once-in-a-lifetime welfare grab from easy PPP money raining and rents rose in response. From mid-2022 to January 2025 rent-per-month jiggles around that $1/sf mark until the influx of data center employment begins in earnest.

For additional context, consider inflation. Between 2015-2024, housing inflation increased, on average, 3.03% annually ². From January 2015 to December 2024, Abilene rent rose 4.7% annually - that covers inflation plus it give the landlord a raise, in real terms, of 1.4%. In 2025, inflation has increased 3.2%. Abilene rents in contrast, increased 48.0% between January 2025 through December 2025 ³- Abilene rents rose roughly 10 times faster than annual performance over the last 10 years.

Today, we left with two influences driving rents in the Abilene market: Stargate (I'm using July 2024 as the date this project took its current form) and now the Frontier data center located at highways 351 & 604 where groundwork begain in September 2025. This impact is evident when one looks at average monthly rent (summarized in Figure 2) for single-family homes in Abilene; in April 2023, average monthly rent was $1,424 and in April 2024 it had risen $57 to $1481 per month. Twelve months later, is was up $108 to $1,589 in April 2025. Move forward 12 more months to April 2026; average rent rose to $2,516 - a $927/month gain.

figure 2: Average monthly rent - mls region, abilene, Aisd, wisd

SUPPLY FOR RENT

For more context, consider days-on-market and rental inventory for rentals (you might need to slide the graph from left to right to see the whole series if viewed on your phone). To define:

Median days-on-market measures how quickly rentals lease. the smaller the number, the better it is for landlords - there is less time between tenants and more rent. It's worse for tenants; they need to act fast if they want to secure a unit in a tight market. This is summarized in Figure 3.
Rental inventory looks at the same data in a slightly different way; it's calculated by looking at rental supply. If there are 100 rentals available and, each month, 20 get leased, you'd have 5 months - 100 rentals/20 leases - of inventory. This is summarized in Figure 4.

figure 3: Median days on market for abilene rentals v. mls region

figure 4: months of supply for abilene rentals v. mls region

Both graphs compare Abilene to the entire MLS (multiple listing service) region - a 48,000 square-mile market that includes the behemoth Dallas/Fort Worth real estate market. The data reveals:

In March 2026, median days-on-market for the MLS region was 29; in Abilene, 7 days. Translation: Abilene rentals leased over 4 times faster compared to the monster Metroplex market.
Throughout the COVID period when we were flush with PPP money, Abilene rental inventory tracked MLS inventory closely. After November 2022 when interest rates begin to rise, Abilene rental inventory fell below the larger comparison market. It makes sense - Abilene incomes are lower than DFW incomes. Rentals become the default when higher interest rates push people from buying to renting in a lower income market. The separation between these two statistics is more pronounced after January 2025. In April 2025; the NTREIS region had 2.4 months of inventory; Abilene had 1.1 months of inventory. Move forward to April 2026; now Abilene has 0.7 months of inventory and the NTREIS region has 2 months of inventory. To rephrase, Abilene has about a third of the rentable inventory (≈2.0/0.7=2.85) compared to the larger market that is driven by Dallas/Fort Worth.

SUPPLY FOR SALE

A few more graphs worth noting, first a comparison the inventory of homes for sale in Abilene v. the region that includes DFW (Figure 5). Until 2025, inventory of homes for sale in the larger MLS region and Abilene moved in the same direction. This trend continued until January 2025 when the two inventory statistics separated - the same time that Stargate employees began arriving in earnest. Today, Abilene has a little less than a fourth of the inventory (4.9/1.3=3.76 months) compared to the DFW market.

figure 5: months of supply for homes for sale in abilene compared v. mls region

Next look at total sales, captured in Figures 6 & 7. In both graphs, you can see the conventional wisdom of residential real estate sales: people schedule moves in the summer when children are out of school or have more time. The larger regional market (Figure 6) has already peaked for the season in May 2025 at 11,531 sales. Looking back to 2020, you can see peak annual sales have fallen at a decresing rate since July 2020 (15,760 sales) when we had easy access to COVID money.

There's also a rush to close deals in December motivated by end-of-year tax planning. This is seen each year in the overall market, but only in 2021 and 2025 in the Abilene market.

figure 6: SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES IN THE MLS REGION

If we just look at Abilene (Figure 7), it appears we are still iterating our seasonal peak for 2025. In Abilene, seasonal peaks occured in June/July (with the exception of 2023 when the market was trying to comprehend 8.25% interest rates). In July 2025, there were 224 closed sales - a peak that surpassed the seasonal peak of 2024 (182 closed sales in June) and 2023 (192 closed sales in August) and surpasses to matching 2022 (218 closed sales in July). We have to go back to 2021 and 3.25% interest rates to find activity that matches these sales. This is unlike the larger market where the seasonal peak has steadily decreased since the days of low rates plus COVID and the exhortation to "shelter-in-place". As 2025 concludes, you can see that end-of-year rush to close deals in Abilene comes close (216 sales) to surpassing the summer peak (225 sales). Our single-family market has become an investment strategy.

figure 7: SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES IN ABILENE

Conclusion: investors are stepping into the residential real estate market to buy homes to meet short-term rental demand shaped by a temporary workforce building Abilene-area data centers and bucking trends for the region. Our brokerage has seen this first hand - an investor used our brokerage to buy this house for around $200,000 plus the contents; this month we leased it for $3800 to a Lancium data center employee, all bills paid - that's $2.85/sf/mo in rent.

One last graph that captures this - Figure 8 shows the divergence between maximum rent and average rent. Since the advent of data center development, maximum rents have gained ground. Some of this is driven by age or amenities - of the homes leased in April 2026, 10 were built new in 2026 and four were furnished which helps explain April 2026 maximum rent per sf of $3.34.

LANDLORD BEHAVIOR

Simplest answer: rent increases to match the market.
Landlords will be less forgiving as they weigh the opportunity cost of tolerating tenants that slow pay. If tenants exhibit any behavior that is negative to a landlord's investment, they can expect non-renewal of their lease or eviction.
Some landlords will delay capital expenditures because they have a captive rental market. While short-term this may benefit a cash-strapped landlord, our rent trends have Abilene on the map as a place to build new rental units. You may effortlessly rent today when supply is inelastic, but investors from the world outside Abilene have us in their crosshairs, ready to respond to market conditions with shiny new rentals.
Landlords might be surprised to find someone other than their tenants leasing their rental unit. People will try to sublet units, furnish it, then put it on Airbnb. We’ve had multiple people approach us about subletting homes and apartments we manage - a formula for Airbnb horror stories and loss of control.
Landlords will pivot significantly into short-term rentals. I own 48, 475-sf units at two properties – nothing sexy by any stretch. Last year I was leasing these for $575 with tenants paying all bills - $1.21 per sf. Today, you can renew your lease for $675 - $1.42/sf - or I’ll rent the same unit for $1,150/month with a full-sized bed, sheets, towels, comforter, shower curtain from IKEA plus a bar of soap ($335.95 fixed costs) plus water, cable, and electric ($165-ish variable). I’m down by $25 v market rent in the first month to pay for the furnishings; after that I’m up $310/month in rent renting to skilled trades with 700+ credit scores.
Landlords will move to month-to-month leases. No more fixed menu costs, rentals will be priced like lobster and based on catch price.

TENANT OUTCOMES

Simplest answer: rent increases to match the market. According to everything you read and see, we are in year 1 of a 6-year build out. If the pace continues as it has, this isn't going to change anytime soon.
Slow pay is never a good idea to maintain a healthy landlord/tenant relationship and it just got worse. Tight inventory means landlords will be less tolerant of excuses about slow rent.
If leasing is your only option, negotiate a longer lease if you can.
If you rent is increasing, ask your landlord if it is possible to add someone to share in the rent expense. Most leases are explicit about guests or sublets - in a tight market it's unwise to commit lease violations that could jeopardize your leasehold.
Tenants will begin weighing the opportunity cost of buying. Forgive this tired, old real estate agent cliche, but now is a fabulous time to buy - not because of rates, but to hedge against climbing rent. Investors also feel this is a good time to buy, too. Figure 8 provides sales-price-per-foot and compares Wylie ISD (green) to Abilene ISD (red) to the larger Metroplex market. AISD prices have increased from $128/sf to $132/sf - a 0.03% gain. In the context of overheated rents, this makes homeownership look better. If you are looking at this market as an investor, the same applies. If the mortgage looks steep relative to your current rent, be improvisational like the woman in my intro and find a few solid renters to help offset that mortgage.

FIGURE 8: HOMES PRICE PER SQFT - MLS REGION, ABILENE ISD, WYLIE ISD

John Hill
updated May 2, 2026. 2:46 pm

¹Rental data was taken from NTREIS MLS for the last 10 years. It only looks at 3 bedroom, 2 bath rentals. Rationale: real estate agents are careless about entering correct data for multifamily units and duplexs. They'll report rent on one side of a duplex, but they are too lazy to look up the unit's actual square footage. This only becomes worse when they are entering information for a fourplex or apartment. The outcome: it results in grossly undervalued $/sf. Admittedly, we lose some value in only looking at 3 bed, two bath homes, but we remove much of the recording slop from the data by doing so, resulting in an incomplete, but consistent record that we can follow across time to evaluate changing market conditions.

² Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, Inflation, consumer prices for the United States (FPCPITOTLZGUSA)

³Percent change in rent was estimated from the natural log of per-sqft-rent regressed against time using rental obserations recorded since January 1, 2025.